There's a story making the rounds about a guy who won $375,000.00 on a World Series bet of $250. Apparently, he bet on the Cardinals to win it all back in September, when the Cards were 10 games out of placing. The odds given were 999 to 1 against that happening.
It's tough when you are in sports arbitrage to read these things, even though you know that mathematically, the bet wasn't justified. Imagine getting that much money in one huge chunk — fantastic. For the arb player though, that's poison. We make our percentages at the single digit level and try to eliminate the risk. Slow and steady wins the day. But it's still hard when you see something like that. The remedy is to remember that the casinos didn't lose here. That big win was offset by many, many losses from other players.
What is just as interesting for me is a little snippet mentioned in the Yahoo News story. They mention that the odds were changed the day after the bet was made. They were changed by Mr. Jay Rood, an MGM vice president (the casino, not the movie company). And, more importantly, that he sets the odds for 12 Las Vegas sports books.
Why is that a big deal? Well, in sports arbitrage, I depend on different odds from different books to make a living. As more and more bookmakers simply use the same service (or person) to set odds, ti becomes impossible to find the differences that make sports arbitrage work.
Why is that a big deal? Well, in sports arbitrage, I depend on different odds from different books to make a living. As more and more bookmakers simply use the same service (or person) to set odds, ti becomes impossible to find the differences that make sports arbitrage work.
From a bookmaker's point of view, unless they want to attract more business by shading the odds one way or another, they can just sign up for a service that sets the odds for them. It's as simple as having a subscription and the software does the rest. This whole deal is going to kill the sports arbitrage business in my opinion.
That's primarily why arbitrage wouldn't work with physical bets here in Las Vegas. You couldn't find enough difference in the odds to overcome the fees you pay for making a bet in the first place.
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On the other hand, I was talking to someone about a new type of arbitrage that might work here in Sparkle City. The idea is to pick an event that is a long way off and make smallish bets on the long-odds teams/players (much like the 999 to 1 on the Cardinals). Then, as the odds change for the worse (as some will do) you sell your bet slip for a profit.
So, for instance, you get the Eagles at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, early in the season. If they win a few games, the odds drop to 10 to 1 or so (just making up numbers). A new bettor would be better off buying your ticket (30 to 1) and pay you extra for the privilege — as long as they are still making a profit overall.
- Arbitrage betting is a sports betting strategy designed to take advantage of pricing discrepancies in the betting markets. It involves placing two (or more) wagers on a single sports event, so that all possible outcomes are covered.
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I'm not sure how this will work in practice, and I'm a bit suspicious right now, but it may have potential. The nice thing is that it doesn't depend on whether a team wins or loses the final event. By that time, you are out of the game. What I don't know yet is how odds might fall even further– in which case you would lose the opportunity to sell the bet. And I'm not sure how and who you would sell to in practice, although that would be internet based I suppose. Finally, I don't know if it is legal.
